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英语政治和媒体词典:解释英语政治时事和媒体常用英语词条。
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国际热点新闻 World Breaking News
1.World News - Latest news from around the globe (NBC)
2.U.S. News: Latest news, breaking news, today's … - CBS News
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英语政治和媒体词典 Dictionary of Politics & Media
shy voters, stealth vote, stealth support,Bradley effect, reverse Bradley effect , shy Trumpers
shy voters or shy vote
害羞的选民,或害羞选举:指选民羞于在民意测验时公开支持或承认某个候选人,但仍在选举中为该候选人投票。
stealth vote, stealth support
偷偷支持。公开场合不公开支持某个候选人,但投票是私下投了该候选人的票。
Bradley effect 布莱德利效应
这种理论,旨在解释当白人和黑人候选人相互竞争时民意测验与选举结果之间的差异。
得名于洛杉矶前市长Tom Bradley。虽然2次民调,布莱德利始终领先对手, 但实际投票结果,他手输给竞争对手。很多人在民调时当面表示支持布莱德利(黑人), 但实际很多选民没有Tom Bradley。
Reverse Bradley effect 反向布莱德利效应
民调是闭口不表态, 含糊其辞。
shy Trumpers
害羞的特朗普支持者。表面不支持特朗普,但实际上投票支持。
Citations:
The Bradley Effect, named after Tom Bradley, an African-American candidate who served as Los Angeles mayor for 20 years, describes a situation in which polls show that a minority candidate is ahead in an election (like Bradley was), but ultimately underperforms (like Bradley did), because respondents are concerned about appearing bigoted in conversation with the stranger who surveyed them.
---.vanityfair.com Jun 28, 2016
For the reverse Bradley Effect to apply in this case, it would be more probable that an overwhelming number of voters are claiming that they’re undecided when they, in fact, plan on voting for Trump.
The idea of so-called “shy Trumpers” suggests that support for Trump was socially undesirable, and that his supporters were unwilling to admit their support to pollsters.
But they have made one thing clear: If Trump is going to win this contest, he's going to need a significant boost from the so-called "stealth Trump supporters" out there.
The point is that outfits like Trafalgar and the psychologists and others mapping the stealth vote are really the best chance Trump has right now. For those of us who still believe Trump can win, there's no getting around the fact that all the conventional data is running against him.
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